Daily Forecast Discussion – June 13, 2017

Today is the last day of the hazy, hot, and humid weather.  A cold front will cross the region this evening.  It will fire off a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening ahead of its passage.  Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rain will be the primary threat with any showers and storms.  High temperatures will be in the 90’s.  Winds will start out of the SW and move to the W and eventually NW as the front passes.

General Overview

Temperatures as of 5 AM were still in the low 70’s across much of Southern New England.

RTMA 2 m temps 5 AM (image Weatherbell)

This will give temperatures a head start to reach 90 again.   It will be in the mid 80’s along the Southern RI coast thanks to a sea breeze and temperatures will be in the upper 70’s across the Cape and Islands.  The warmest locations will be the CT and Merrimack River Valleys.

NWS Max Temps Tuesday (image Weatherbell)

Max temps will probably be reached around 12-2 PM before the cold front arrives.  Clouds will begin to move in from the North and West late this AM.  Some showers will develop along the NH/MA border around noon time and work down Rt 2 towards Boston.  Here is the surface analysis as of 2 PM.

WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Tuesday 2 PM

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has put Southern New England in a Marginal Severe Thunderstorm Threat this afternoon.   “Marginal” is for hail and winds.  There is nothing marginal about lightning so if you are out golfing later this afternoon or on the water keep an eye to the sky.

SPC Day 1 Thunderstorm Outlook

Here is the 18-hour simulated radar, starting at 5 AM.  This model keeps the thunder threat going until 8-9 PM along the South Coast.  Rainfall totals as high as 0.25″ are possible with any thunderstorms.

08z HRRR 18-hour Simulated Radar (image Weatherbell)

Dew points are going to climb into the upper 60’s this afternoon and evening.    A few reading’s near 70 are possible in SE MA/RI.    The front clears the region overnight and a Canadian air mass will take over for the subtropical one we have had over the past few days.  Temperatures tonight will be much cooler, especially north of the Pike.  By 5 AM temps will be in the upper 50’s north of around Rt 2 and into SW NH.  Low to mid 60’s will still be widespread south of the Pike.

NWS Min Temps Wednesday AM (image Weatherbell)

If needed this will be updated to address the thunderstorms this afternoon.

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