Tropical Weather Outlook June 16, 2017

There are two disturbances in the Atlantic basin that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring for possible development.  One of the systems is in the Western Caribbean Sea near the Yucatan Peninsula, a historically favorable region for development in June.  The other is in the low latitudes of Eastern Atlantic moving West.  These systems usually do not develop much but a Tropical Depression could form this weekend.  The system in the Caribbean has a higher potential of becoming a Tropical Storm this weekend/early next week as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico.

General Overview

There are plenty of thunderstorms in the Western Caribbean as a Tropical Wave interacts with an upper trough in the Gulf of Mexico.  Atmospheric pressures have been lowering and a surface low is expected to develop this weekend (and may be developing near the coast of Honduras per the 145 PM Tropical Weather Discussion).

NOAA GOES_East Rainbow Infrared Satellite

There is a lot of moisture available for this tropical disturbance to bundle.  The winds may never really crank with this system, but no matter what happens a lot of precipitation will be moving towards the Gulf Coast.  The second system is just entering the image in the bottom right corner.  On visible satellite, there is a noticeable spin to the clouds indicating low pressure is trying to form.

NOAA GOES_East Visible Satellite

This wave is tracking slightly north of west.  It is located south of 10 N (around 6-7 N) and 35 W.  It has moved over a very warm patch of water so let’s see what happens with this wave over the next few days.  The waters out ahead of it are not as warm as the pool it is moving over right now.

OISST Sea Surface Temperatures 6/14/17 (C) (image Weatherbell)

Waters are plenty warm in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean as well.

5-Day Forecast

The NHC gives both of these waves a 50% chance of development in the next 5 days.

NHC 5 day outlook

There is a good chance that neither one of these develops.  History tells us the Atlantic wave is likely to die, even if it does become a Tropical Depression.   In both 2000 and 2003, a Tropical Depression formed near this disturbance.  In each case, the depression never organized enough to be named a Tropical Storm.  I’ll check back in this weekend with an update.  It does look like heavy precipitation totals are possible next week along the Gulf Coast, depending on the ultimate track of this system.

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