Long Range Forecast Discussion 6/21-6/28

A fairly typical early summer weather pattern will dominate the atmosphere over the next 7-10 days.  A series of disturbances will swing across the Northern US/Southern Canada through the period, bringing several chances of precipitation to Southern New England.  Temperatures will be seasonable on Wednesday and Thursday before climbing above average on Friday.  This weekend temperatures will be slightly above average before falling below average early next week.  There is a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico that will likely introduce its own moisture into the weather pattern this weekend.  This is a complication in the forecast and makes confidence in the weekend/early next week outlook lower than normal.


Temperatures across New England will mostly be in the 70’s on Wednesday.  A few 80-degree readings in Southern New England (Springfield, Lawrence for example) will be possible.  An upper-atmosphere disturbance will move across Northern New England on Wednesday which will fire off a few showers and thunderstorms.  A few of these may also move through Central and Eastern Massachusetts during the afternoon.  On Thursday it will be a bit warmer with temperatures in the low 80’s across much of Southern New England and in the mid to upper 70’s in Northern New England.  A warm will approach from the SW so clouds will increase Thursday PM.  Dewpoints on both Wednesday and Thursday will be in the mid 50’s.


A warm front will move through Southern New England overnight Thursday into Friday.  This system will not only return temperatures to the low to mid 80’s and dewpoints to the upper 60’s,  but it will also bring a chance of heavy rain during the early morning hours.  It should be gone by the AM commute but at this time range, those exact details are uncertain.   A cold front will pass Friday evening that will perhaps fire some strong thunderstorms and flash flooding in Western and Northern New England.


Some showers will move across Northern New England on Saturday afternoon, keeping temperatures in the upper 60’s/low 70’s.   Southern New England will be in the upper 70’s/low 80’s.   Dewpoints will be back in the 50’s Saturday.  On Sunday a disturbance will again approach from the west.  This disturbance will also have the potential for thunderstorms and heavy rain.  Timing and track TBA.  A Potential Tropical Cyclone will complicate the forecast this weekend.  The storm will have no direct impact on Southern New England but it will add its energy to the atmosphere.  One of these atmospheric disturbances, either Friday or Sunday, could capture the system.  That would make for a much different forecast, with a lot more rain in Southeastern New England.


Lower than normal atmospheric heights in the east will likely lead to below average temperatures.  Precipitation chances are normal for this time of year.  My best guess is Monday afternoon through Wednesday are dry, with maybe some afternoon showers/thunderstorms thanks to cold air aloft.

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