4th of July Forecast

Subtropical high pressure will grab control of our weather this afternoon and evening.  Mother nature will try and fire off some of her own fireworks this weekend but most of Southern New England will be protected by the Bermuda High.  The heat and humidity will make it possible for a shower or storm both Friday and Saturday with a much higher chance on Sunday.  The heat and humidity will relent across interior New England on Monday, but the boundary will get hung up at the South.  This will keep the humidity in Southeastern New England and a chance of storms on the 4th.

Thursday

See the daily forecast discussion.

Friday

The warm front will be across Northern New England tomorrow morning.  A few leftovers showers and storms will be moving offshore by 8 AM.

WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Friday 8 AM

This leaves the northeast in the “warm sector” tomorrow which means there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms.  The greatest chance is back in upstate New York and Vermont.  The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a marginal to a slight risk of severe thunderstorms there.  Further south into Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island regular garden variety thunderstorms are possible, but the chances are low (10-20%),

SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Temperatures tomorrow will climb into the mid to upper 80’s across Southern New England for all except for the immediate South Coast.  Strong SW winds off the water will keep temperatures in the upper 70’s.  In Northern New England most are in the low to mid-80’s.

NWS Max Temperatures Friday (image Weatherbell)

Some locations will hit 90.  The dewpoints in the upper 60’s will make it feel even warmer.  Those strong SW winds will be 10-15 MPH with gusts to 30.  That will provide relief from some of the heat.  Some high clouds will move across SNE Friday afternoon and early evening.  The mid and low-level cloud decks should be clear and it will be a nice night for fireworks in Southern Worcester County.  Temperatures will fall into the upper 70’s Friday evening and down to the upper 60’s by Saturday AM.

Saturday

The cold front will stay well to our west on Saturday.  As a result, widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast but mostly in PA/NY/VT/NH/ME.  A few showers are possible in Berkshire County in MA and Litchfield County in CT.

WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Saturday 8 AM

Temperatures will once again climb into the upper 80’s across Southern New England.  Dew points will remain in the mid to upper 60’s.  Partly cloudy skies across Central/Eastern MA make Saturday a great Lake day.  At the beach, winds will be a little lighter on Saturday than they will be tomorrow so temperatures will be a little warmer than Friday.  2-3 ft surf is likely.

NWS Max Temperatures Saturday (image Weatherbell)

Thunderstorms will erupt after 3 PM to our north and west, but some showers will be possible in VT/NH/ME late morning as well.

Sunday

The subtropical ridge will relent on Sunday and allow the cold front to move east towards the Atlantic.

WPC Surface Fronts/Pressure Sunday 8 AM

Dewpoints will remain in the upper 60’s but temperatures will be in the low 80’s.  Showers and thunderstorms will be in Central/Eastern MA in the morning.  The afternoon probably won’t be all that much better.  Severe thunderstorms will be possible in this set-up.  If your plan is to be at the beach on Sunday I would have a backup plan ready.

NWS Max Temperatures Sunday (image Weatherbell)

Monday

The cold front will be hung up along the Southern New England coast.  Dewpoints will be in the low to mid-60’s to the right and south of this boundary.  It will serve as a focus for some isolated shower activity.  That said most the region is dry.  Temperatures will climb into the upper 80’s.

NWS Max Temperatures Monday (image Weatherbell)

Tuesday

Similar to Monday.  The boundary will still be along the South Coast.  A spot shower or thunderstorm is possible as some humid air works across Massachusetts.  Max temperatures will be in the mid-80’s.

NWS Max Temperatures Tuesday (image Weatherbell)

Check back tomorrow for the very latest.

 

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