Tropical Depression 4 Forms

Tropical Depression 4 formed yesterday in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean.  Thunderstorm activity blew up overnight but is already waning this morning as dry Saharan Air is wrapped into its circulation.

GOES_East IR Rainbow Satellite Loop (NOAA)

This depression is not forecast to strengthen into a Tropical Storm.  Winds are currently sustained at 30 MPH.  Winds must be at least 39 MPH to receive a name.  The next name on the list is Don.  Seriously.  The lists are made years in advance.  Don replaced Dennis after the 2005 season and was used in 2011 before any conspiracy theories go wildly viral.

NHC 5 Day Track

In a few days, wind shear will increase so even if this briefly becomes Tropical Storm Don it will degenerate into an open wave by the end of the weekend.  A famous early July hurricane in 1996 also developed on the 5th.  That storm would become Bertha, which struck North Carolina as a Category 2 Hurricane on July 13.  Nothing suggests this will happen again but it’s something that also comes to mind when a system develops in the Main Development Region early in the season.  This is the second system to develop in the MDR so far in 2017, including Tropical Storm Bret.

OSPO SST North Atlantic (image Weatherbell)

All signals continue to point to an active season.

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