Winter Weather Outlook 12.4-12.10

A strong storm system will bring blizzard conditions to parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest today and tomorrow.  As the center of the storm drives into Central Canada on Tuesday, a vigorous cold front will move across the Eastern United States.  Heavy rain will fall overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning across Southern New England.  The approach of the front will help mild air surge into the Northeast.  Max temperatures will be in the 50’s on Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday (in the early AM hours).  This is not what winter lovers want to hear.   What you may want to hear is that I don’t foresee high temperatures anywhere near 40 again for awhile after this.

Meteorological Discussion

WPC Forecast Surface Fronts/Precipitation Monday 1 PM

As the low moves NNE, a warm front will slide across the Northeast.  Some showers will break out tomorrow afternoon before the main cold front arrives.  Rain will be heavy at times Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the main cold front slides across Southern New England.  It will take until Thursday for the cold air to return.  The pattern across North America will be highly amplified in the mid levels of the atmosphere.  A large ridge will bring warmer than normal temperatures to the Western half of the continent as a deep trough brings colder than normal weather to the Eastern half.

12z GFS 500 mb height anomaly Friday 1 PM (image Weatherbell)

This pattern looks like it has some staying power.  Disturbances will ride over the ridge and down through Central Canada into the US, continually re-enforcing the cold air.  So the most important ingredient for snow will be in place for awhile.   As these disturbances reach the Atlantic coast, they will have the opportunity to meet up with some Southern stream energy and potentially drop some snow in New England.  Let’s discuss.

Winter Weather This Week

In Northern New England, rain will change to snow overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.  Some fresh, natural snow is on the way to the mountains of Northern New England although totals will likely be limited to just 1-3″.

12z GFS P-Type Wednesday 1 AM-7 AM (image Weatherbell)

There is a chance for some light snow on Saturday in SNE.  This doesn’t appear to be a major deal but it always takes SNE drivers one storm to remember how to drive in the snow.   This is would be a bit of an interaction between upper-level disturbances and not a low pressure driven event, which helps keep snow intensities low.  I’m only expecting a coating to perhaps 2″ in Worcester County with rain in Southeastern MA.  The Berkshires and Northern New England will be able to pick up a few more inches.  There are differences in the computer models.  Some take a separate, more intense system on Sunday and drop perhaps a plowable snow.

00z EURO P-Type Saturday 1 PM (image Weatherbell)

The EURO is far superior to the GFS.  The EURO has light snow overnight Friday into Saturday before bringing this coastal low close Saturday afternoon.  The GFS has a moderate snowfall on Sunday from a coastal low.  Just to give out a general idea, I think 2-4″ of snow is possible this weekend with a chance for something more than that.  It’s really hard to not be excited as a meteorologist for a pattern like this.

Advice

Teachers

Be wary of scheduling exams for the middle to end of next week.  There are some signals that the northern and southern stream want to come together and play.  When the streams merge some of the most intense storms develop.

Snow Removal Technicians 

Make sure your equipment is ready to go on Saturday.

General Public

Not a bad time to go and get a shovel and some ice melt early this week to beat the rush.  Christmas shopping may be even more difficult than normal this weekend.  If you love to ski and snowboard, fresh natural snow will likely be abundant next weekend in Northern New England.

 

Stay with BV WX Service as this snow situation develops.  Get outside today or tomorrow before the warm air goes away for awhile.

-Zack Green

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