Monday PM Storm Update

Tuesday 5 AM Quick Update

A *Winter Storm Warning* is now posted.  My next complete update will be this evening.  My quick look this AM still shows scattered snow showers beginning late tomorrow AM/early tomorrow PM which would struggle to accumulate.  The intensity increases late tomorrow afternoon into early evening.

NWS Tuesday AM Headlines

Previous Update Below

A *Winter Storm Watch* is now posted Wednesday AM through Thursday AM as a Nor’easter tracks near or over Southern New England midweek.

NWS PM HEADLINES

The weather tomorrow should be nice with less wind and more sunshine so get out and enjoy it if you can.  Let’s go right to the storm watch.

General Overview

Low pressure will dive out of the Great Lakes, consolidate, and develop a new low near the New England coast.  Here is the low location tomorrow AM.

WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Tuesday 7 AM

By Wednesday evening, the storm will be strengthening off the NJ coast and sending waves of heavy snow into Southern New England.  The exact track will determine where the rain/snow line sets up.

WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Wednesday 7 PM

The most likely location of R/S is inside I-95 and south of the Pike.  So what does that mean for interior MA and when does it start and end?

Timing/Impacts

There is good agreement that light precipitation will break out late Wednesday AM/early Wednesday PM.  Given the time of year, snow will be slow to accumulate until the precipitation rates increase.  That should happen around 4 PM.  That means there will be a nightmare evening commute on Wednesday.  Let’s discuss.

Overnight Tuesday and Wednesday AM

Some light snow/rain will push through overnight Tuesday into Wednesday AM.  This is associated with some mild air surging aloft well ahead of the dying low and new reforming one.  This will be scattered in nature and won’t screw up the AM commute.  It will be slick so roads will have to be pre-treated.

Wednesday Early Afternoon/Evening

By 3 PM, snow should be picking up in intensity in Western/Central MA, CT, and Northern RI.

18z NAM hires Simulated Radar Wednesday 3 PM (image WeatherModels.com)

Towards the evening commute, the R/S line will collapse towards the coast.  It may be raining just at the coast but not far inland snow will be falling fast and furious.  Snow could fall 1-3″/hr.  With rates this intense, thundersnow will be possible.  Also, travel will be nearly impossible.

18z NAM Hires Simulated Radar Wednesday 6 PM (image WeatherModels.com)

The rain snow line will fluctuate in Eastern MA Wednesday evening.  I don’t think it will make it any further than 495 and even that will only be for a brief period and only if the low tracks over the Cape instead of just offshore.  By midnight, 6-12″ of snow is likely in Worcester County and Northern RI.    The higher totals will be reached if those super 1-3″/hr rates are maintained for several hours.

Thursday AM

Snow will continue through the early morning hours, letting up around the Thursday AM commute (although this is still TBD, tbh).  An additional 2-4 or 3-6″ of snow throughout all of MA and N RI with the exception of South Coastal MA and the Cape/Islands.  A conservative snowfall guess from the NWS is calling for a widespread 8-16″.

NWS Snowfall Forecast

Although some of the computer models are putting out higher numbers than this, the snow will be heavy and wet which keeps totals down.  The pasty snow will stick to everything and enhance the risk of power outages.  Trees were weakened by the powerful winds on Friday.  The extra weight from the heavy wet snow and moderately strong winds (inland, at the coast they will be powerful) should lead to more power outages in Worcester County than we saw last weekend.  Closer to the coast, the winds will just add to the problems our friends in communities like Duxbury, Scituate, Quincy, and many others are dealing with.  Heavy rain will add to river flooding concerns in Bristol and Plymouth Counties.

This is how I see it right now.  Possible problems with this forecast would be a track closer to the coast, bringing the rain-snow line further inland, a dry slot, and somewhat marginal surface temperatures for snow.  For some reason, this winter has been a nightmare to forecast snow for.   But, I am pretty confident that most of the region sees a moderate to a major snowstorm.

I’ll post a brief update on the facebook page early tomorrow AM.  A new blog will be posted tomorrow evening.  Although I’d love to update sooner than that, my new work schedule makes that difficult.

-Zack Green

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